Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Reflecting On Tonight's Iowa Caucus

The most amazing thing about the Iowa Caucus is that Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney,  who were initially  not expected to win Iowa, are running neck and neck right now. There are reports that Romney votes are possibly undercounted for Romney in 2 precincts.
Regardless if Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum take first place at the Iowa polls, their success tonight was impressive. Santorum was trailing in the polls badly until the very last minute when all the other candidates had experienced a parabolic rise and fall in support. Mitt Romney wasn't planning on even setting foot in Iowa and then got into the game very late and managed to get perform very well tonight. I cannot substantiate this claim but think Mitt's performance in the Iowa Caucus was better in 2012 than it was four years ago in 2008. 
Although anything can still go on from now until the primary season is over, I think you will see that this race will be a competition between Romney and Santorum from now on. 
I previously thought it would be a race between Newt and Romney but I no longer believe this. Gingrich has vowed to go after Mitt Romney since Romney did a great job neutralizing Newt before the Iowa Primaries. Gingrich has been bitching about how effective Romney's SuperPac was in running ads against him yet he makes no complaint about Ron Paul's attack ads against him. Regardless, Newt Gingrich's own SuperPac is set to go on the attack on Mitt Romney.  As a result, I think Newt knows he will never be in the front runner position again and is now dedicated to hurting Mitt Romney as much as he can before he is forced to withdraw from the campaign.
Other candidates will try to rise to the top again but I doubt it lightning will strike twice for them. They will be stuck in the second or third tier status until they drop out. Rick Perry announced tonight that he will be reassessing his campaign which could mean anything from another shake up in his staff to resigning from the race. However, I think Rick Perry will probably stay in the race and see what happens in the South Carolina primary. Sarah Palin has suggested that Michelle Bachmann drop out and endorse someone else. Jon Huntsman virtually ignored the Iowa caucuses and is putting all of his energies into winning the New Hampshire primary. I find this odd since he knows he will get clobbered in New Hampshire and will either resign or limp on towards South Carolina. 
South Carolina is THE primary to watch this year. All the second and third tier candidates will be making that state their last stand. After South Carolina, I expect everyone to drop out except Mitt, Santorum and Ron Paul.  

No comments:

Post a Comment