Sunday, January 8, 2012

My Predictions for the New Hampshire Primary

For New Hampshire, it easy to make a prediction about who will win. Mitt Romney will have done what no candidate has done and that is to win Iowa and New Hampshire. No other presidential candidate has ever done that. The tricky part is whether or not he can win South Carolina. That will be the key hurdle for Romney to overcome. For the other candidates, its a little more difficult to predict but I'm gonna try.
Here are my predictions for Tuesday:
  1. Mitt Romney
  2. Rick Santorum
  3. Jon Huntsman
  4. Ron Paul
  5. Newt Gingrich
  6. Rick Perry
I don't see anybody dropping out. Not until all the candidates see how they perform in South Carolina. Jon Huntsman might drop out if actually comes out in 5th or 6th place. He's adopted the same strategy as Rick Santorum did for Iowa by spending lots of time and energy in New Hampshire. If he doesn't place in the top three, I can see him dropping out. But in all likelyhood, he'll hang by his fingernails until the South Carolina primaries. 
Once we get the South Carolina primaries, expect Perry and Huntsman to drop out. Ron Paul isn't the kind of person to drop out even when all indicators suggest he should. Newt Gingrich will move on to Florida with the hopes of damaging Romney in that state. The problem is that he doesn't have the resources or organizational strength to carry on his war on Romney. At some point, he will tap out of the race. Florida will be the last stand for Newt. Rick Santorum will also stay in the race until Florida and go on to battle Romney in Super Tuesday but will ultimately lose.

No comments:

Post a Comment