2012: What The GOP Race Looks Like Right Now

When the 2012 campaign first started, there were a lot of Republicans that were thinking about throwing thier hat into the ring. As time went on, the field started to shape up as candidates were announcing that they were either in the race or not.

This is what the 2012 GOP race looks like right now:

Currently Running

Mitt Rommey, former Governor of Massachusetts 

Rick Santorum, former Senator for Pennsylvania 

Newt Gingrich, former Reprsenative of Georgia's 6th district

Ron Paul, current Reprsenative of Texas' 14th district

Buddy Roemer, former Governor of Louisiana 

Fred Karger, Gay Rights activist

Dropped Out 

Tim Pawlenty, former Governor of Minnesota

Gary Johnson, former Governor of New Mexico

Herman Cain, business executive and talk radio show host

Michelle Bachmann, U.S. Representative Minnesota's 6th district

Jon Huntsman, former Governor of Utah and Ambassador to China

Rick Perry, current Governor of Texas 

Decided Not To Run

Donald Trump, real estate magnate

Mike Huckabee, former Arkansas Governor

Haley Barbour, current Governor of Mississippi.

Mitch Daniels, current Indiana Governor

Chris Christie, current New Jersey Governor

Paul Ryan, U.S. Representative for Wisconsin's 1st congressional district

Mike Pence, U.S. Representative for Indiana's 6^th district

John Thune,  U.S. Senator, South Dakota

Jim DeMint,  U.S. Senator, South Carolina

Sarah Palin, Former Governor of Alaska

Donald Trump, business executive

BREAKING: Michele Bachmann Is Suspending Her Campaign

With the low results of the Iowa Caucus, Michele Bachmann is announcing that she is suspending her campaign. Last night, Sarah Palin said suggested that Michelle Bachmann drop out and endorse someone else. It appears that Michele is following Palin's advice.

Michele Bachmann could never really regain her momentum when she won the Iowa straw poll straw poll but then continued to fall behind when other Republican candidates like Rick Perry began to enter the race. Michele Bachmann could never wow the crowd during the debates. She also experienced other problems on the campaign trail as well: 

But her campaign was beset by a string of gaffes — starting with the assertion at her campaign launch that Waterloo, Iowa, was the home of John Wayne, when it was actually notorious serial killer John Wayne Gacy who called Waterloo his hometown.

Another blow to her campaign came when Ed Rollins, her campaign manager, left the campaign and began speaking out against Bachmann on cable TV and in the media.

Heading into the fall, Bachmann tried to injure the then-frontrunner Perry by attacking him for mandating the HPV vaccine Gardisil. But the blowback of her claims that the vaccine caused mental retardation hurt her as well, even as continued to repeat them repeat them on the campaign trail.

Despite Michele Bachmann's poor performance, she contributed immensely to the campaign. I think she helped define the issues and held some of the candidates' feet to the fire on important issues.  

Another candidate that may withdraw is Rick Perry. Last night, he announced that he will be reassessing his but this morning he put out a tweet that he will fight on in South Carolina: 

And the next leg of the marathon is the Palmetto State...Here we come South Carolina!!!

I've been saying all along that South Carolina is where the action will be and it will determine who stays in the race and who won't.

Reflecting On Tonight's Iowa Caucus

The most amazing thing about the Iowa Caucus is that Rick Santorum and Mitt Romney,  who were initially  not expected to win Iowa, are running neck and neck right now. There are reports that Romney votes are possibly undercounted for Romney in 2 precincts.
Regardless if Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum take first place at the Iowa polls, their success tonight was impressive. Santorum was trailing in the polls badly until the very last minute when all the other candidates had experienced a parabolic rise and fall in support. Mitt Romney wasn't planning on even setting foot in Iowa and then got into the game very late and managed to get perform very well tonight. I cannot substantiate this claim but think Mitt's performance in the Iowa Caucus was better in 2012 than it was four years ago in 2008. 

Although anything can still go on from now until the primary season is over, I think you will see that this race will be a competition between Romney and Santorum from now on. 

I previously thought it would be a race between Newt and Romney but I no longer believe this. Gingrich has vowed to go after Mitt Romney since Romney did a great job neutralizing Newt before the Iowa Primaries. Gingrich has been bitching about how effective Romney's SuperPac was in running ads against him yet he makes no complaint about Ron Paul's attack ads against him. Regardless, Newt Gingrich's own SuperPac is set to go on the attack on Mitt Romney.  As a result, I think Newt knows he will never be in the front runner position again and is now dedicated to hurting Mitt Romney as much as he can before he is forced to withdraw from the campaign.

Other candidates will try to rise to the top again but I doubt it lightning will strike twice for them. They will be stuck in the second or third tier status until they drop out. Rick Perry announced tonight that he will be reassessing his campaign which could mean anything from another shake up in his staff to resigning from the race. However, I think Rick Perry will probably stay in the race and see what happens in the South Carolina primary. Sarah Palin has suggested that Michelle Bachmann drop out and endorse someone else. Jon Huntsman virtually ignored the Iowa caucuses and is putting all of his energies into winning the New Hampshire primary. I find this odd since he knows he will get clobbered in New Hampshire and will either resign or limp on towards South Carolina. 

South Carolina is THE primary to watch this year. All the second and third tier candidates will be making that state their last stand. After South Carolina, I expect everyone to drop out except Mitt, Santorum and Ron Paul.  

My Predictions For The Iowa Caucus

Here are my predictions for who will win the Iowa Caucus tomorrow:

1. Mitt Romney
2. Rick Santorum
3. Ron Paul
4. Newt Gingrich 
5. Rick Perry 
6. Michelle Bachmann 
7. Jon Huntsman 

Even if Ron Paul does manage to win Iowa, he will probably get shut out from getting any of the delegates from that state since the Iowa Caucus. 

After Iowa, New Hampshire is the next Republican primary election. I can't see Jon Huntsman and Michelle Bachmann continuing on in the race once they get the results back from New Hampshire. Jon Huntsman has stated that New Hampshire will determine whether he will stay in the race. Michelle Bachmann will probably not be able to continue on after two straight losses. While Iowa is first in the nation, the real election to watch is South Carolina and Florida. Whoever wins these primaries will have a good momentum going into Super Tuesday.

The other thing to watch is the endorsements of those candidates who drop out of the race. I am predicting that Michelle Bachmann and Jon Huntsman will probably endorse Rick Santorum once they withdraw from the candidacy. Ron Paul has stated that he will probably not endorse anyone when he drops out of the race. If Rick Santorum drops out of the race, I predict he will endorse Mitt Romney since he endorsed him in the 2008 Presidential elections. If Newt Gingrich drops out of the race, he will most likely endorse Mitt Romney.

Presdential Elections Are Not American Idol Contests

With the first Republican primary only weeks away, many people are complaining that candidates like Mitt Romney aren't just "exciting" enough: 

Talk to any Republican leaders or strategists and they will quickly point to the enthusiasm gap between their voters and President Obama’s as one reason they believe they will prevail next November. Listen to any Republican voters and a different enthusiasm gap appears. They are not truly excited about any of their likeliest nominees, least of all Mitt Romney.

The former Massachusetts governor is rapidly becoming a one-man political experiment, testing the theory that empathy and the ability to connect with voters are prerequisites for a winning campaign. He has many attributes, but firing up a Republican crowd isn’t one of them.

When it comes to selecting a person who will hold the most powerful office in the world, excitability should be on the bottom of the list of list qualities we want in a President. Yet, everyone, including conservatives, think that "excitability" should be top quality a candidate should posses. 

John Schroeder, in an article for Article IV blog, writes that the conservative desire for an exciting candidate is a serious problem for the GOP party and America:

There are a couple of troubling aspects to this trend.  Firstly, it seems to say that we are not impressed with ourselves.  We are the party of competence, not “sex appeal” – the grown-ups in the room.  When we go chasing stuff like this we seem to forget that fundamental aspect of what it means to be a conservative Republican.  There is no question that image and media matter in electoral politics, but it is up to us to shape them to our goals, not to be shaped by them.

Which brings me to the second and more troubling issue.  There simply is no greater evidence of where chasing image gets you than the current administration.  Incompetent and petulant on levels previously incomprehensible for the office of POTUS, we are witnessing a triumph of charisma over substance.  Charisma may help get you elected, but it is not worth the electrons it is transmitted by when it comes to actually governing. 

There is a huge difference between a candidate and a president. People seem to forget that being a candidate is not a job or a position. Yet, the Presidency is. 

A candidate is just a temporary label we use for someone who is seeking the office of President. Some candidates drop out of the race. Many don't get the job. Only a few men have been successful in becoming President of the United States. 

Its important to remember that there are skills and qualifications that may make a person an exciting candidate but they're not necessary for being a President. In fact, many of those skills are not in the job description for being a President.

It is a tough and very demanding job that requires a extremely high level of experience and competency.   Presidents have to make tough decisions on a wide variety of subjects, both domestic and foreign, such as the economy, national security, immigration and education. The President is also the Commander In Chief who oversees the armed forces.

Does America really want an exciting yet incompetent President? That’s what we got with Obama and look how that is going. Do we really want another four years of Obama as President? 

I want a candidate with experience and ideas, not a rock star politician. Yet, we're looking for the "American Idol" President. We’re a fickle society with a very short attention span. Look at current crop of conservative candidates. Bachmann, Perry and Cain were all flashes in the pan. They were the Republican flavor of the month. Newt is the current pick of these American idol conservatives.

Mitt Romney may be boring but he's extremely qualified for the job of President. He's not a rock star candidate. He's the serious and mature candidate America needs.

I don’t want the Republican party to nominate someone based on their rock star appeal and not on substance, ideas or positions. Yet, that is what the Republican party appears to have become. The only consistency that the American idol conservatives, also known as the Anybody But Romney crowd, is how quickly they betray and flip flop on the core issues and values they claim to cherish and hold dear.

I don't want an exciting President. If a president is boring, I'm ok with that just as long as he is extremely qualified and competent to be the President of the United States. 

America needs to grow up and take the election seriously by focusing on the candidate's resume rather how exciting he is.

Presidential elections are NOT American Idol contest. Lets not turn it into one.

Bachmann's Campaign Implodes In New Hampshire As The Entire Campaign Staff Resigns

With the New Hampshire primaries only a few months away, the resignation of Bachman's entire campaign staff has significantly hurt whatever minuscule chances she had of winning that primary:     

The entire paid New Hampshire staff for Republican presidential candidate Michele Bachmann has resigned, in another blow to the Minnesota congresswoman's foundering campaign.

Jeff Chidester, Bachmann's former New Hampshire campaign director, confirmed the mass exodus. "The New Hampshire team has quit," he said. "We'll issue a joint statement as to our reasons why."

Chidester's confirmation, made via email and voice mail to National Journal and CBS, followed a confusing day in which Bachmann insisted that reports of the staff departures were untrue. But Chidester said he left last week and informed "people that are closest to Michele."

"I'm sorry the national team is confused," he said. "They shouldn't be."

One of the aides who quit, Caroline Gilger, Bachmann's southern state field director, is joining the rival campaign of Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

According to the New Hampshire Union Leader, a total of four staffers have left: Chidester, Gilger, Tom Lukacz and Nicole Yurek. Uncertain was the future of staff member Matt LeDuc.

Chidester is a longtime Bachmann friend and supporter and a well-known radio talk show host. Reached by email on Friday, Chidester told CBS/NJ that the staff will be issuing a joint statement. "We are more than a team, we have all bonded over the past few months," Chidester wrote. "This is one of the finest group of people I have every had the pleasure of working with. Each one of them is smart, dedicated, and committed to each other. We have not had an opportunity to talk to each other since the story broke, but once we do, we will release a joint statement."

With this news, I predict that Michele Bachmann will be the next candidate to drop out of the 2012 race by the end of November at the earliest and by the end of December at the latest. Michele Bachmann's poll numbers are very low which is hovering around 4%. People on Intrade thinks she only has a 1.2% chance of becoming the Republican nominee. Moreover, she's only been able to raise $4.1 million in the third quarter. 

All the signs indicate a campaign that is struggling to survive. If the Bachmann campaign is able to survive until the end of this year, her campaign will not last long in the Republican primaries. She will most likely drop out pretty quickly after the New Hampshire primary on February 14th.  

2012 Candidates Blast Pastor Jeffress' "Mormonism Is A Cult" Comment

While the 2012 candidates disagree with each other on various political issues, they are all united on one thing: Pastor Jeffress was wrong to call the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints a cult:

Former Sen. Rick Santorum, a presidential candidate who performed strongly at the Values Voter summit, said he does not believe Mormonism is a cult, and believes Romney is a Christian.

"I'm not an expert on Mormonism, but every Mormon I know is a good and decent person ... by and large, except for Harry Reid," Santorum said on "Fox News Sunday," jabbing at the Senate Democratic leader.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich said someone's specific religion has no place in the conversation.

"I think that none of us should sit in judgment on somebody's else's religion and I thought it was very unwise and very inappropriate," he said, adding that he thinks Mormons are Christians.

Businessman Herman Cain, who appeared with Gingrich on CBS' "Face the Nation," was a little more circumspect.

"I believe that they believe they're Christians," Cain said of Mormons. He added that the candidates are running to be "theologian-in-chief."

Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., told CNN that the issue is about religious tolerance, not someone's faith.

"To make this a big issue is ridiculous right now, because every day I'm on the street talking to people. This is not what people are talking about," she said.

Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who won the Values Voter straw poll, told Fox News that he disagrees with Jeffress and the comment was "unnecessary."

“But I don't think that's the issue of the day," he said. "I think liberty is the issue of the day. Our Constitution is the issue of the day. And too much government -- that is the issue of the day. It's not the definition of a cult."

Another 2012 candidate, Rick Santorum has previously stated that Mitt Romney and John Huntsman's faith will not be an issue in this election.  Jim DeMint has also publicly echoed that same idea earlier this year. Furthermore, influential Christians like Pat Robertson and Joel Osteen have accepted the fact that Mitt Romney is a Christian.

Attacking Mitt Romney's faith is an old 2008 campaign trick that won't happen again. Voters have already gone through this issue before and they're not interested in going through it again. Additionally, Americans are becoming less tolerant of candidates who are willing to use an opponent's faith for political gain. American has always been a religiously diverse nation and it will continue to be in the future. 

All of the 2012 candidates, except Rick Perry,  recognize this fact and that is why they have blasted Pastor Robert Jeffress for his comments.

How About a Romney/Bachmann Ticket!? I Say, Yes!

A while ago, I was quiet excited about the idea of a Romney-Cain ticket. However, after watching the CNN Debate, I think most Americans, such as myself, would really be really thrilled about a Romney-Bachmann ticket. James Taranto, writing for the Wall Street Journal, thinks this would make for a formidable team against Obama:  

A Romney-Bachmann ticket would be balanced in terms of ideology (he's moderate, she's conservative), governing style (he's technocratic, she's idealistic), religion (he's Mormon, she's evangelical) and, of course, sex.

This column has no brief for Romney, but strictly as political analysis, we'd say a Romney-Bachmann ticket looks more formidable than the McCain-Palin ticket that lost in 2008. Romney, unlike McCain, has executive and private-sector experience. He's in his mid-60s, old enough that his maturity makes for an attractive contrast with Barack Obama, but not so old that anyone will wonder if he's up to the job.

A Romney-Palin ticket would balance each other out well in other ways too: 

Like another Massachusetts governor who ran for president, Romney would promise "competence, not ideology"--although Michael Dukakis actually was an ideologue of the liberal left. But again, Romney looks better than McCain, who offered a lack of vision but no reason to think he was a competent administrator.

As for Bachmann, her biggest advantage over Sarah Palin may be that she is now running for president. That means that if Romney were to name her a year hence, she would be a far more familiar and media-savvy politician than Palin was in 2008. She would be much less vulnerable to both smears from the partisan media and unforced errors like Palin's disastrous interview with Katie Couric, whoever that is. For those who care about such things, the presence of a woman on the ticket might serve as an excuse to vote against re-electing the first black president.

No doubt, a Romney-Bachmann team is much better than a Romney-Cain ticket. Michelle Bachmann certainly outshined Herman Cain at the CNN Debate. She came across as more knowledgeable, confident and articulate than Cain did. In fact, she did much better at the debates than everyone else except for Mitt Romney. Not bad for a women on her first day as an official candidate for the 2012 election. 

The other reason why I like Michelle Bachmann is because she would absolutely slaughter Joe Biden in the Vice Presidential debates. Herman Cain would have no problem debating Joe Biden on substantive issues. But when it comes to articulating his views in a debate format, he would have a hard time against the vice President. 

Personally, I'm sold on this idea. What about you?