How Badly Will Newt Lose To Obama And Why Republicans Should Not Vote For Newt In 2012

Ladies and Gentlemen, the time grows closer and closer to the beginning of the 2012 Republican primaries.

Before I talk about the 2012 Republicans, I want to remind people about the 2008 Republican primaries because I fear that we haven't learned from that last election.

During the 2008 election, John McCain's campaign was almost dead during months prior to the first Republican primaries. Mitt Romney was set to win the Republican nomination until Senator McCain won the New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida primaries. He made an agreement with Mike Huckabee, who was also running for President, to give his delegates to McCain's team in order to prevent Mitt Romney from winning that state.

With Super Tuesday coming closer, virtually almost all of the top conservative talk show hosts such as Rush Limbaugh, Michael Medved, Sean Hannity, Mark Levin, Laura Ingraham, Glenn Beck, Dennis Prager, Mike Gallagher and other conservative talk show hosts were strongly telling people on their radio show to stop McCain in his tracks and vote for Mitt Romney because McCain was not a conservative and would most likely lose to Obama in the 2008 election. Sure enough, despite heeding the warnings of talk show conservatives, conservative authors like Ann Coulter and religious authorities, Republican voters chose to give the nomination to John McCain on Super Tuesday.

Just as so many conservatives predicted and warned, Barak Obama defeated John McCain by a wide margin. Obama got 365 of the electoral college votes while McCain only got a meager 173 votes. Moreover, Obama won the popular vote by 53% to McCain's 46%.

Once again, many conservatives, such as myself, are sounding the warning bell to conservative voters to NOT vote for Newt Gingrich. Even libertarians are urging people not to vote for Newt.

Like John McCain, Newt Gingrich will lose the 2012 election against Barak Obama. I'm predicting that Newt Gingrich will lose by a bigger margin than McCain did in 2008. I'm predicting that Gingrich will be comparable to Jimmy Carter's loss to Ronald Reagan in 1980, Walter Mondale's loss to Ronald Reagan in 1984 or Michael Dukasis' loss to George H.W. Bush in 1988. It will be that bad.

Lets review what would happen in the 2012 general election and beyond if Newt Gingrich wins the Republican nomination. 

1.  Newt Gingrich will definitely lose the female vote. He will push female voters into voting for Obama and will cause women vote against the GOP for years to come in the future.

2. He will also most definitely lose the crucial independent voter. The more independents learn about him or are reminded of who this man is, the less they will like him. Independent voters will not like the choices of choosing between Obama and Newt but they will select Obama over Gingrich at the end of the day. 

 3. Newt Gingrich will reverse all our gains in the 2010 midterm elections. He will hurt the local, state and national Republican candidates who are seeking to ride a second wave the against the Democrats in public offices across this nation.

However, This wouldn't be the first time Newt would cause major losses in these elections. Lets not forget how the House Republicans kicked him out as Speaker after he single-handedly alienated both Republicans and Democrats in Washington, along with much of the American public, resulting in the biggest loss of Republicans seats in the House in 64 years. How bad was Newt Gingrich for the Republican party? Very bad: 

And yet, his approval numbers while he was in charge of the House were dreadful. Gallup found his net favorable rating in negative territory by the early spring of 1995 (33 percent approve to 47 percent disapprove, or a 14 point net negative), and at the end of 1995 his net negatives would exceed 25 points, where they would remain for the rest of his tenure.

By the time of the 1996 election, Gingrich had become a drag on the nationwide Republican brand. Consider the following chart, which tracks Gingrich’s favorable rating in the 1996 exit poll, by two metrics. First, it looks at his approval rating among all voters, and among only Bob Dole voters. Second, it looks at his approval rating nationwide and in Georgia.

These are very weak numbers indeed. Obviously, his 32 percent national favorable rating shows that only the core GOP base was behind him, but even then Gingrich was viewed favorably by just 61 percent of Dole voters nationwide. And in Georgia – his home state where people knew him best – he could not even pull in three quarters from Dole voters.

If Newt Gingrich is nominated in the 2012 primaries, he will cause conservative candidates running in these elections to lose. He will push the Republican wave back.

3.  Voting for Newt Gingrich will discredit and destroy social conservative which will harm them for many years to come. Social Conservatives will not be able to 

4. Newt Gingrich would perform poorly in debates against Obama. Why conservatives think a Teddy Roosevelt progressive intellectual like Newt would be a good match with the FDR progressive intellectual like Obama at the debates is beyond me. Having a debate between two intellectuals is a bad match for Conservatives. Newt might be able to handle Obama in a debate, but his personality and his past will offset whatever strengths Newt has in the debating room. 

5. Newt Gingrich doesn't have the organizational stamina or financial resources to go head to head with Obama. As a result, Newt Gingrich will gas out early in the campaign because he doesn't have the resources to last long against Obama.

Newt Gingrich is the most repulsive, toxic, controversial, and dangerous candidate for Republican party. I'm surprised that people have even given him a first or a second look in this election. Electing Newt would be the kiss of death for the Republican party. Yet, there are many who irrationally insist that conservatives vote for Newt Gingrich over Mitt Romney in the 2012 primaries. They use convoluted logic to justify their reasons for why we should vote for him despite the fact that he has so much baggage and issues that he will be a major liability for Republicans in 2012. Moreover, Newt Gingrich will erase all the progress the Republicans have made and damage the Republican brand for a long time.

That is why its no surprise that talk radio show host Micheal Savage has offered $1 million dollars to Newt Gingrich to drop out of the race. If Newt wants to do something good for America, he would be wise to take that money.

If Gingrich wins the Republican nomination and loses to Barak Obama in 2012, I will repost this article on the day to remind conservatives and Republicans that many of us sounded the warning bell against Newt but you refused to listen to our warnings just as you did in 2008. Those of you who have supported and will vote for Newt Gingrich will have no one but to blame but yourselves.

However, it is not too late to stop Newt Gingrich. The best way to do that is that everyone should ignore whatever Newt says in debates and interviews.  Moreover, not a single penny should be donated to his campaign, not a single person in any state should show up at his any of his campaign stops, no one should ever buy his books and most importantly, do not vote for him in any of the Republican primaries. You, the Republican voter in New Hampshire, Ohio, South Carolina and Florida have the power to stop Newt in his tracks by voting for Mitt Romney. 

As I said before, the goal of 2012 is to defeat Obama in 2012. The best way to do that is to unite around Mitt Romney who can not only beat Obama, but lead the country after he's elected in 2012.