Monday, April 25, 2011

Is Paul Ryan Really Running For President?

Despite the fact that Representative Paul Ryan has stated that he will not be running in 2012, the rumors that he might be running just won't go away.  Ace reports that what Paul Ryan's public refusal to run in 2012 is very much different that what he tells people privately: 
"I've been wondering about this because I'd written off Ryan ("My kids are too small and my ego's not big enough") and yet there continue to be these mentions of him as a prospect by the conservative media.
I asked Bill Kristol about this at Breitbart's book signing -- I keep hearing Weekly Standard people, particularly, hint that Ryan is entertaining the idea of a run.
Joking around, he said, "Oh, we all just say that to each other [at the Weekly Standard]" -- meaning, "We're all psyching ourselves up with that and/or attempting to put out that rumor out there."
But I asked another journalist type (I won't say who since I didn't tell him I'd be quoting, it was a personal type question) and he said, "Well, he rules it out in his public statements but in his private statements...?" Not so much.
I asked, to be sure, if he was saying "Who knows what he says in private?" or if he was saying "I've heard what he says in private, and he's not as firm on it as he is in public declarations." He confirmed it was the latter.
I think the situation he'd be willing to consider it is if there's no unifying, consensus figure in the primaries.
Just noting."
Although Representative Paul Ryan is popular enough to have a facebook page dedicated to the hope that he might to run and that he won  the 2012 Tea Party Presidential Poll, I really don't think he will run. 
Here is why I don't think Paul Ryan will run. 
I don't think he's willing to pull himself away from his work of pushing his "roadmap" plan and throw his hat into the ring and compete in a Republican field of 2012 contenders which is already very crowded at the moment and more politicians are likely to join in on the fray.
Paul Ryan will have to prepare a battle on many fronts such as fund raising and setting up a national organization needed to win the 2012 primaries. When it comes to fund raising, the battle for campaign funds from large and small donors will be fierce. Moreover, campaign contributions from large donors have already been secured or are in the process of being secured. Additionally, very few of the candidates have the financial capacity to endure the 2012 primaries, or beyond to the 2012 general election. As a result, if Paul Ryan were to run, he has an uphill battle in lining up donors, getting the necessary capital to sustain the long primary battles and having enough cash to run afterwards.
When it comes to getting organized for 2012, very few 2012 candidates have established the kind of network in each state to compete in 2012. Many political advisers and campaign managers have already committed to working with whatever political campaign they've promised to work for. Again, Paul Ryan would have to scramble to get teams going in each state and have them be competitive in each of those states. Not only that, he would have to compete in hiring people against those who haven't decided to run yet but might such as Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin.
Paul Ryan is doing an excellent job in Washington D.C. by pushing his "roadmap plan" and has done a remarkable job of changing the national discussion on how to reduce the national debt. Right now, he is laser focused on reducing the national debt. People in D.C. and those who follow him closely know he is a policy wonk and really likes to dig into the details of a particular matter. However,  If he were to run, he would lose his focus and energy on pushing his "roadmap" to reducing the deficit and have to broaden his focus on other national issues because he wouldn't want to become a single issue candidate by just focusing on the national debt (even though that's should be the only concern of every 2012 candidate running). 
In the end, I just can't see Paul Ryan running in 2012.

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