Thursday, May 26, 2011

New Sarah Palin Documentary To Be Released Soon: Is It A Sign She Will Run In 2012?

Sarah Palin knows how to keep the public guessing about whether or not she will run. Some people, such as myself, think that she will not run in 2012. However, other people do think she will.  Here are the list of indicators that make people think she is running: 
  1. The Movie After last fall's midterm elections, Palin contacted conservative director Stephen K. Bannon to make a movie highlighting her accomplishments as Alaska governor. Palin screened the movie last week.
  2. Arizona Home Palin bought a house in Scottsdale, Arizona for $1.7 million through a shell company to keep her identity secret. The new home would make a far more conventient place to HQ a presidential campaign.
  3. Public Appearances Palin will begin showing up at more public events "as early as this weekend."
  4. New Staff Palin has hired two people to manage her schedule. This comes after hiring a former adviser to Bob Dole as chief of staff and dismissing two neoconservative advisers, Randy Scheunemann and Michael Goldfarb. The duo were replaced them with an adviser, Peter Schweizer, who is more skeptical of the American intervention in Libya.
  5. Cultivating Supporters California lawyer Peter Singleton has been contacting Iowan Tea Party activists and Republicans to build support for a Palin candidacy, though he says he's acting alone.
According to some people, this soon to be released documentary about Sarah Palin is a significant indicator that she will run in 2012:
In the strongest sign yet of a possible Sarah Palin run at the presidency, filmmaker Stephen Bannon this week announced a $1 million documentary, "The Undefeated," about her term as Alaska's governor.
Scott Conroy, a reporter at and co-author of "Sarah from Alaska," got a sneak peek at the documentary and said on "The Early Show" Thursday he's heard from "several reliable sources" that, over the next couple of days, another "major indicator" is going to surface that she's ready to run in 2012.
Of the documentary, Conroy said, "This is really the biggest news that we've had in a while about Sarah Palin in terms of her presidential prospects. It's suggests strongly that she's been planning something all along. She's been kind of quiet."
So far, Sarah Palin's poll numbers don't look too good for her: 
* The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed her running in fifth place — with 10 percent — in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary race.
* A March Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Palin’s approval rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents had dipped below 60 percent — a far cry from her stratospheric near-90 percent approval ratings when she was named John McCain’s running mate in 2008.
* A February Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican voters in Iowa showed Palin’s favorable rating at 65 percent, down from 71 percent in a November 2009 survey. As importantly, those viewing Palin “very favorably” dropped from 27 percent in 2009 to 19 percent in 2011.
Not all poll numbers are bad news for Sarah Palin.Gallup released a poll today showing Sarah Palin tied with Mitt Romney as the top Republican contender if she were to become a candidate for 2012. However, despite the recent Gallop poll results, the evidence points to the fact that Republican support for her has declined.  
Not only does she not fare well with Republicans in the polls, but its the nation wide poll numbers that is  also hurting her as well: 
However you feel about Sarah Palin and regardless of what you think about her poll numbers, Sarah Palin has an public perception problem. As a result, this soon to be released documentary is designed to rehabilitate her image and boost her poll numbers among Republican voters: 
Whether the documentary is successful at rebuilding Palin's image remains to be seen, but it premieres in Iowa next month.
The documentary, Conroy said, covers Palin's years as governor in Alaska.
Conroy said, "A lot of people, even Sarah Palin's biggest fans, don't really know anything about her record in Alaska. And that's really what the film focuses on. Her record in Alaska as governor for the first two--and-a-half years that she was in office, the only two-and-a-half years, was very impressive for the most part. She accomplished a lot on oil and gas issues. She really was the kind of maverick that's now become sort of a cliche. But that's what attracted her to the McCain campaign. She had approval ratings that were consistently above 80 percent. And she accomplished a lot for the state. She was really a transformative governor in a lot of ways."
He continued, "So I think what the movie tries to do is it tries to reintroduce her to people who may have already written her off. You know, she became sort of a firebrand for conservatives in the campaign in 2008 and afterwards. But this is really going to try to recapture her independent streak."
This film will be a biased documentary about Sarah Palin. She commissioned this film. As a result, you will learn alot about her by what she chooses to reveal and not reveal about herself
The movie will not mention Palin's notorious reaction to criticism of her reaction to the January shooting of Democratic congresswoman Gabriel Giffords. She responded to suggestions that a now infamous campaign map showing Giffords's electoral district in the crosshairs of a gun had influenced the shooter Jared Lee Loughner by accusing her opponents of manufacturing a "blood libel", a phrase which refers to the false accusation that Jews killed Christian children to use their blood in religious rituals. Palin's use of language was widely criticised, and her reaction to the shooting compared unfavourably to the more statesmanlike response of President Barack Obama. Subsequently, her chances of building enough momentum to secure the Republican nomination for the 2012 race have appeared to dwindle.
Bannon's two-hour movie features interviews with Palin supporters in Alaska and conservative bloggers such as Andrew Breitbart. The politician does not appear on camera, but her voice is used for narration via clips from the audiobook version of Going Rogue. RealClearPolitics reports that the film makes "unmistakable allusions to Palin as a Joan of Arc-like figure".
You can watch a brief preview of the documentary "The Undefeated" over at
I am still not convinced that Sarah Palin will run. I don't think that this film serves as good evidence that reveals her intent for 2012. And I'm not the only person who remains skeptical about the significance of this documentary: 
However, Palin choosing to actually launch a presidential bid is a different thing entirely. Neither Bannon's intentions, nor the film, serve as evidence for a genuine Palin campaign -- another publicity stunt is just as likely.
Even if she does run, the film may not have the effect Palin wants if how her reality television show is any indicator of how this documentary will turn out:
However, if Palin's TLC reality show, "Sarah Palin's Alaska," is anything to go by, the interest is unlikely to last (5 million people tuned in for the show's premiere; 2 million fewer watched Episode 2).
In the end, I could be entirely wrong about my prediction that she won't run. 
However, If she does run, it won't be an easy campaign for her. She has participated in a national campaign as John McCain's running mate but this is her first presidential campaign. Moreover, she will have to face well organized campaigns like Tim Pawlenty and Mitt Romney's. Finally, she will have to compete against TEA party favorites like Michelle Bachmann and Herman Cain.

1 comment:

  1. Palin did not commission the film and she didn't exert editorial control. She approached Bannon to make a video for her, he decided to make a full length film on his dime...