Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Santorum Wins Missippi & Alabama But Romney Still Ahead On Delegate Count

There is a fine line between trying to win and trying to prevent others from winning. Tonight, Newt Gingrich has demonstrated that he's in the race not to win but to prevent Mitt Romney from winning.  Prior to tonight, Newt Gingrich's spokesman R.C. Hammond called both Alabama and Mississippi "must wins" for his candidate.
In his concession speech, he attacked Mitt Romney by saying that "If you're a frontrunner and you keep coming in third, you're not much of a frontrunner." That's a bold comment coming from a man who has only won two primaries so far. Moreover, who knows third place better than Newt Gingrich!? 
Newt Gingrich's arrogance and selfishness is on display for all to see. Most candidates in Newt Gingrich's position would have seen the writing on the wall and withdraw from the election. However, he's willing to destroy Mitt Romney and hurt the Republican party's chances of defeating Obama. 
Rick Santorum had a good night tonight by winning Alabama and Missippi. He's now the alternative to Mitt Romney. Rick Santorum thinks he can win the Republican nomination despite being far behind in the delegate count. Even if he is unable to get the necessary delegates needed to win the Republican nomination, Rick Santorum will stay in the race just to prevent Romney from winning the Republican nomination.  
Its clear that both men are staying in the race no matter what. If they can't beat Mitt, they'll try to slow him down as much as possible as Newt Gingrich explained on a radio show recently: 
Speaking on a local Alabama radio show on Tuesday morning, the former House speaker said there is an advantage to using a “tag-team” approach to defeating Romney, the current front-runner.
“With Rick and me together, we are really slowing him down, with some help frankly from Ron Paul,” Gingrich told the radio hosts. “The country is sort of saying, a majority is saying, `Not Romney.’ The biggest bloc is saying Romney, but it’s not a big enough bloc to be a majority. We now are beginning to think he will literally not be able to get the delegates to get the nomination.”
However, Rick Santorum's SuperPac isn't on board with the plan to double team with Newt Gingrich against Mitt Romney. Last week, the SuperPac asked Newt to drop out and they've renewed that call tonight
"A week ago we called on Newt Gingrich to exit the race," said RWB Fund strategist Nick Ryan. "Tonight, voters in Alabama and Mississippi said the same thing."
Even if Santorum disagrees with his own SuperPac and wants to gang up on Mitt, the double team strategy is a double edge sword because the longer these two men remain in the race, they easier they make it for Romney to pick up more delegates since they're splitting the vote between each other. Moreover, the longer these two continue to split the vote which allows Mitt Romney to pick up more delegates, the harder it will be for them to get the 1,144 delegates they need.
For example, even though Mitt Romney didn't win Mississippi and Alabama tonight, he still picked up delegates from those states Mitt Romney campaigned in the counties with the most delegates and was able to maximize the amount of delegates he could get while still losing both states. Moreover,  he will most likely get all the delegates from tonight's primaries in Hawaii and American Samoa. Thus, close thirds in two states and will come in first in two states is still a victory for Romney tonight due to the delegates he will have gotten tonight.
Furthermore, looking ahead to upcoming primary elections, their plan won't work. For example, Rick Santorum  is already behind in Illinois on delegates because he didn't file full slate. As a result, Santorum is no on the ballot in four Illinois congressional districts which makes him intelligible for eight delegates. Even if Mitt doesn't win Illinois, he'll still have the advantage in wining more delegates than Santorum. Moreover, current polls have Mitt Romney ahead in Illinois.
As a result, Mitt Romney shouldn't be concerned about Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich ganging up on him. He also isn't concerned if Newt Gingrich decides to withdraw from the race. 
Even though Rick Santorum won two states tonight, the real winner was Mitt Romney who had a good night tonight and as he continues to maintain his lead on the delegate count.

1 comment:

  1. Behold Newt Gingrich, the man who deserves a medal for being the most selfish, self-serving politician out there.

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