Monday, March 5, 2012

My Thoughts And Predictions For Super Tuesday

The biggest question for Super Tuesday will be how long Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum will stay in the race.  With  419 delegates at stake for Super Tuesday, both men are looking to stop Mitt Romney's momentum any way they can. It will be a difficult challenge given that Mitt Romney has recently won a string of victories in Maine, Arizona, Michigan, Washington and Wyoming. Additionally, Mitt Romney is far ahead of his competitors when it comes the delegate count. 
Rick Santorum will try stop Mitt Romney in Ohio where 66 delegates are up for grabs. However, winning Ohio will not be easy because his campaign has become very disorganized and he may not be able to get all the delegates in that state. Initially, he lost 9 delegates but may end up losing 9 more delegates which means that he may not get more than one quarter of them. What this means is that he might lose out on 16 of the 66 delegates.  Santorum's problem is compounded by the fact that the delegates he may be losing will probably come from places where he enjoys strong support. To make matters worse, Rick Santorum is currently tied with Mitt Romney in a Reuters/Ipsos poll while Public Policy Polling has Romney ahead in Ohio. 
Ohio isn't the only problem for Rick Santorum.  He's not on the Virginia ballot where 49 delegates are up for grabs. He was initially not on the Indiana ballot but is apparently now on the ballot and may not do well in that state. He's also not doing well in some of the other Super Tuesday states and will most likely come in second and third in these states.
Newt Gingrich is making his last stand in Georgia where it has the largest prize of 76 delegates up for grabs and is hoping to revive his candidacy in his state. Currently, Newt Gingrich is ahead poll in the peach state according to the most recent Mason-Dixon Poll. While Newt Gingrich might win Georgia and steal the delegates away from Mitt Romney, it will not be enough to resuscitate his campaign since he will mostly likely come in third or fourth in the other Super Tuesday states. 
Ron Paul will not win any states on Super Tuesday. If he does, I'll be very surprised. However, in Virginia where just Mitt Romney and Ron Paul are the only candidates on the ballot in that states, Mitt is set to blow Ron Paul out of the water since he is ahead by 40 points. In other Super Tuesday states, Ron Paul will most likely come in third or fourth place. 
Super Tuesday will be an exciting day. Not only is Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum scrambling to keep their campaigns afloat, but they're both focusing on the two states that has the most delegates to win in order to slow down Mitt Romney's rapid collection of delegates. Between these two states, there are 142 delegates at stake which is a third of the total delegates available to win on Super Tuesday. Both of these men, either operating together or independently, are looking to deprive Romney of winning the two big prizes. However, even if Mitt does lose one or both of these states, he will come out ahead on Super Tuesday with more delegates and more victories under his belt. 
Given that Mitt Romney has, so far, won primaries in the North, South, Midwest and the West, he will do very well on Super Tuesday. Its also worth pointing out that up until Super Tuesday, Mitt Romney is the only candidate to win delegates in every state where a contest has been held and delegates have been up for grabs. We also cannot forget the fact that Mitt Romney has been doing very well among conservatives in these primary elections. The fact that there was record turnouts in Michigan and Washington and he won these states. In fact, Mitt Romney did so well among in the Washington caucus  that kinda messes up the media meme that he's not connecting with Republicans. However, the facts prove that he is.
Now that I've publish my thoughts about Super Tuesday, I'd like to make my predictions. Here they are below: 
  1. Alaska (caucus): Mitt Romney will win by a huge margin in that state. It will be a blow out in which he may get as high as 80% of the vote in that state.  
  2. Georgia (primary): This will be the only state Newt Gingrich wins on Super Tuesday. I predict that Mitt Romney will come in second, Santorum third and Ron Paul in last place. 
  3. Idaho (caucus): This state will probably give Mitt Romney the largest support on Super Tuesday in which I think he will get 90% of the vote. Romney is very well liked in that state and there is a large LDS presence in that state.  
  4. Massachusetts (primary):  Mitt Romney will also win the state that he governed from 2003-2007. He's will liked in that state and enjoyed strong support from the Massachusetts Republican Party. Right now,  Suffolk University has a poll from February where Romney is ahead by a huge margin of  64% whereas Santorum had 16% support, with Paul at 7% and Gingrich at just 6%. 
  5. North Dakota (caucus): Mitt Romney will probably win this state by 60% of the vote. 
  6. Ohio (primary) This election could go either way with Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum winning this state. However, Rick Santorum will probably lose this state since he's either tied or behind in the polls. Moreover, the fact that Mitt has momentum from winning 5 elections in a row, Rick Santorum's horrible performance at the Arizona GOP Debate and losing in Michigan and Washington, voters will probably will probably go for Mitt. 
  7. Oklahoma (primary): This will be the only state that Mitt Romney will do horribly in. Santorum has a huge lead over all the other GOP candidatesMitt might come in third place but will probably end up in second place. 
  8. Tennessee (primary): Rick Santorum is barely holding on to this state but he will probably win this state. 
  9. Vermont (primary): Mitt Romney will have another blow out victory in this state with the other candidates will come in at a distant second, third and fourth places. 
  10. Virginia (primary): As I explained above, Mitt Romney will win by a huge margin over Ron Paul and will easily win the 49 delegates up for grabs.
Super Tuesday will be a good night for Mitt. He's looking to win 7 states and I think he'll rack up anywhere between 220 to 240 delegates that day. Moreover, given that he will win by huge margins in a few states, more and more conservatives will unite around Romney in the primary elections after Super Tuesday. 

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