Sarah Palin Will Probably Not Run In 2012

There a lot of signs indicating that Sarah Palin may not be running in 2012. With Mitch Daniels, Tim Pawlenty, Mike Huckabee, Paul Ryan and other 2012 candidates out of the race, all eyes are on Sarah Palin now. The big question among journalists, commentators, politicians and political junkies is this: will she run or not?

Despite the fact that many people have been speculating for a very long time on whether she will run in 2012 or not, everything appears to indicate she will not be running. There are rumors that she is considering running to become a U.S. Senator to replace Senator Jon Kyl and that those rummors appear to have some credibility since she recently bought a house in Arizona:

Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a possible 2012 presidential contender, may have purchased a luxury home in north Scottsdale, the Arizona Republic reports.

Safari Investments LLC reportedly paid $1.695 million for the 8,000-square-foot home in what appears to have been a deal on behalf of a secret high-profile buyer.

The purchase comes after talk in some Arizona political circles that Palin was shopping for homes in the Scottsdale area, according to the newspaper. 

Another piece of evidence comes from an e-mail that Sarah Palin's PAC recently sent out to her supporters: 

“Taking back control of the House last year was only the first step,” Palin says in the mailer from SarahPac, sent out nationwide. “Now you and I must fix our eyes on 2012. Our goal is to take back the White House and the Senate.”

The e-mail is clever since she is still trying to keep people guessing about whether or not she will run in 2012. However, the last few words in that e-mail is ambiguous. It could just mean that after taking back the house in a huge landslide, Republicans are ready to continue their sweep of the senate. It could also mean she's gearing up for a run in the Senate. The e-mail shrewdly reveals nothing but it might be a subtle signal that she's shifting her political ambitions away from the White House to the Senate. 

There are other reasons why she probably won't run. Her poll numbers don't look too good for her: 

* The latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed her running in fifth place — with 10 percent — in a hypothetical Republican presidential primary race.

* A March Washington Post/ABC News poll showed Palin’s approval rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents had dipped below 60 percent — a far cry from her stratospheric near-90 percent approval ratings when she was named John McCain’s running mate in 2008.

* A February Des Moines Register poll of likely Republican voters in Iowa showed Palin’s favorable rating at 65 percent, down from 71 percent in a November 2009 survey. As importantly, those viewing Palin “very favorably” dropped from 27 percent in 2009 to 19 percent in 2011.

Another reason why she will not run in 2012 is because she may not be up for another grueling political campaign: 

She has little appetite for the nitty-gritty hardcore campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire that the genuinely committed candidates – like Romney, Tim Pawlenty, New Gingrich and Rick Santorum – are already doing and which lasts for months on end. Palin also knows from her own experience how brutal the scrutiny of the media will be for any leading Republican candidate and, perhaps, especially for her. But if she runs, she won't be able to avoid it. The national press will camp out in Wasilla, yet again. She will not want that.

Like Huckabee, she has became rich and famous on the back of the failed 2008 campaign. Books, speeches and TV shows seem to offer a lot of power without any of the tiresome reality of running for office. Especially in a race that looks so hard to win.

Also, if she loses – either the nomination race or against Obama – she will seriously tarnish her credibility. America will forgive many things, but a two-time loser? Not so much. Better to be a might-have-been than a never-was.

There's also one other reason why Sarah Palin may not run: Michelle Bachmann. She has the star power that Sarah Palin has but she doesn't have the kind of baggage that the former governor of Alaska has. Even liberal journalist and commentators think that Bachmann has a real shot at defeating Obama and becoming the first female president of the United States.

I won't be surprised if Palin doesn't run. For those of us who follow her closely, all the signs point to her not jumping in the race. Of course, Palin could surprise us all and run. However, I'm almost positive she's not going to run.